[경제] 영문(english) 주식 관련 61.8%, 50%, 38.2% 법칙 피보나치 법칙?! (Fibonacci retracements pattern)

 

 

 

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출처: http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:chart_analysis:fibonacci_retracemen

 

 

Fibonacci Retracements

 

Introduction

Fibonacci Retracements are ratios used to identify potential reversal levels. These ratios are found in the Fibonacci sequence. The most popular Fibonacci Retracements are 61.8% and 38.2%. Note that 38.2% is often rounded to 38% and 61.8 is rounded to 62%. After an advance, chartists apply Fibonacci ratios to define retracement levels and forecast the extent of a correction or pullback. Fibonacci Retracements can also be applied after a decline to forecast the length of a counter trend bounce. These retracements can be combined with other indicators and price patterns to create an overall strategy.

The Sequence and Ratios

This article is not designed to delve too deep into the mathematical properties behind the Fibonacci sequence and Golden Ratio. There are plenty of other sources for this detail. A few basics, however, will provide the necessary background for the most popular numbers. Leonardo Pisano Bogollo (1170-1250), an Italian mathematician from Pisa, is credited with introducing the Fibonacci sequence to the West. It is as follows:

0, 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, 144, 233, 377, 610……

The sequence extends to infinity and contains many unique mathematical properties.

• After 0 and 1, each number is the sum of the two prior numbers (1+2=3, 2+3=5, 5+8=13 8+13=21 etc…).
• A number divided by the previous number approximates 1.618 (21/13=1.6153, 34/21=1.6190, 55/34=1.6176, 89/55=1.6181). The approximation nears 1.6180 as the numbers increase.
• A number divided by the next highest number approximates .6180 (13/21=.6190, 21/34=.6176, 34/55=.6181, 55/89=.6179 etc….). The approximation nears .6180 as the numbers increase. This is the basis for the 61.8% retracement.
• A number divided by another two places higher approximates .3820 (13/34=.382, 21/55=.3818, 34/89=.3820, 55/=144=3819 etc….). The approximation nears .3820 as the numbers increase. This is the basis for the 38.2% retracement. Also, note that 1 - .618 = .382
• A number divided by another three places higher approximates .2360 (13/55=.2363, 21/89=.2359, 34/144=.2361, 55/233=.2361 etc….). The approximation nears .2360 as the numbers increase. This is the basis for the 23.6% retracement.

1.618 refers to the Golden Ratio or Golden Mean, also called Phi. The inverse of 1.618 is .618. These ratios can be found throughout nature, architecture, art and biology. In his book, Elliott Wave Principle, Robert Prechter quotes William Hoffer from the December 1975 issue of Smithsonian Magazine:

….the proportion of .618034 to 1 is the mathematical basis for the shape of playing cards and the Parthenon, sunflowers and snail shells, Greek vases and the spiral galaxies of outer space. The Greeks based much of their art and architecture upon this proportion. They called it the golden mean.

Alert Zones

Retracement levels alert traders or investors of a potential trend reversal, resistance area or support area. Retracements are based on the prior move. A bounce is expected to retrace a portion of the prior decline, while a correction is expected to retrace a portion of the prior advance. Once a pullback starts, chartists can identify specific Fibonacci retracement levels for monitoring. As the correction approaches these retracements, chartists should become more alert for a potential bullish reversal. Chart 1 shows Home Depot retracing around 50% of its prior advance.

 

 

The inverse applies to a bounce or corrective advance after a decline. Once a bounce begins, chartists can identify specific Fibonacci retracement levels for monitoring. As the correction approaches these retracements, chartists should become more alert for a potential bearish reversal. Chart 2 shows 3M (MMM) retracing around 50%of its prior advance.

 

 

Keep in mind that these retracement levels are not hard reversal points. Instead, they serve as alert zones for a potential reversal. It is at this point that traders should employ other aspects of technical analysis to identify or confirm a reversal. These may include candlesticks, price patterns, momentum oscillators or moving averages.

Common Retracements

The Fibonacci Retracements Tool at StockCharts shows four common retracements: 23.6%, 38.2%, 50% and 61.8%. From the Fibonacci section above, it is clear that 23.6%, 38.2% and 61.8% stem from ratios found within the Fibonacci sequence. The 50% retracement is not based on a Fibonacci number. Instead, this number stems from Dow Theory's assertion that the Averages often retrace half their prior move.

Based on depth, we can consider a 23.6% retracement to be relatively shallow. Such retracements would be appropriate for flags or short pullbacks. Retracements in the 38.2%-50% range would be considered moderate. Even though deeper, the 61.8% retracement can be referred to as the golden retracement. It is, after all, based on the Golden Ratio.

Shallow retracements occur, but catching these requires a closer watch and quicker trigger finger. The examples below use daily charts covering 3-9 months. Focus will be on moderate retracements (38.2-50%) and golden retracements (61.8%). In addition, these examples will show how to combine retracements with other indicators to confirm a reversal.

Moderate Retracements

Chart 3 shows Target (TGT) with a correction that retraced 38% of the prior advance. This decline also formed a falling wedge, which is typical for corrective moves. The combination raised the reversal alert. Chaikin Money Flow turned positive as the stock surged in late June, but this first reversal attempt failed. Yes, there will be failures. The second reversal in mid July was successful. Notice that TGT gapped up, broke the wedge trend line and Chaikin Money Flow turned positive (green line).

 

 

Chart 4 shows Petsmart (PETM) with a moderate 38% retracement and other signals coming together. After declining in September-October, the stock bounced back to around 28 in November. In addition to the 38% retracement, notice that broken support turned into resistance in this area. The combination served as an alert for a potential reversal. William %R was trading above -20% and overbought as well. Subsequent signals affirmed the reversal. First, Williams %R moved back below -20%. Second, PETM formed a rising flag and broke flag support with a sharp decline the second week of December.

 

 

Golden Retracements

Chart 4 shows Pfizer (PFE) bottoming near the 62% retracement level. Prior to this successful bounce, there was a failed bounce near the 50% retracement. The successful reversal occurred with a hammer on high volume and follow through with a breakout a few days later.

 

 

Chart 5 shows JP Morgan (JPM) topping near the 62% retracement level. The surge to the 62% retracement was quite strong, but resistance suddenly appeared with a reversal confirmation coming from MACD (5,35,5). The red candlestick and gap down affirmed resistance near the 62% retracement. There was a two day bounce back above 44.5, but this bounce quickly failed as MACD moved below its signal line (red dotted line).

 

 

Conclusions

Fibonacci retracements are often used to identify the end of a correction or a counter-trend bounce. Corrections and counter-trend bounces often retrace a portion of the prior move. While short 23.6% retracements do occur, the 38.2-61.8% covers the more possibilities (with 50% in the middle). This zone may seem big, but it is just a reversal alert zone. Other technical signals are needed to confirm a reversal. Reversals can be confirmed with candlesticks, momentum indicators, volume or chart patterns. In fact, the more confirming factors the more robust the signal.

Using with SharpCharts

The Fibonacci Retracements Tool can be accessed when annotating a SharpChart. There are three steps involved. First, click on the Fibonacci Retracements Tool icon at the top. Second, move the cursor to the starting point, left click and hold. Third, drag the cursor to the ending point and release the mouse button. The default38.2%, 50% and 61.8% retracements will appear. The actual price levels can be hidden/shown by holding the CRTL buttom and left clicking on the top or bottom lines. To add the 23.6%, hold the CRTL button while selecting the Fibonacci Retracements Tool and then draw as normal. This will also add a 161.80% retracement.

 

 

 

 

 

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출처: http://www.trading-point.com/fibonacci-calculator

FIBONACCI CALCULATOR

Important: This page is part of archived content and may be outdated.

Use the Fibonacci calculator in your forex trading to derive Fibonacci retracements and projections. Simply enter the low point and the high point or vice versa depending on if you are using the uptrend mode or the downtrend mode and click calculate. You can enter your own retracement and projection percentages in the four custom fields that are available. “Reverse Retracement & Projection Calculator” allows to calculate retracement or projection percentage value of a price level in relation to the preceding price move.

HOW TO USE FIBONACCI FOR YOUR TRADING?

Fibonacci levels are used by drawing a trend line between two significant points, usually from a base to a recent high and inserting percentage levels. The financial markets demonstrate Fibonacci proportions in a number of ways, particularly, Fibonacci forms a tool for calculating price targets and placing stops. For example, if a correction is expected to retrace to 50% of the previous wave, an investor might place a stop to some extent below that level. This will guarantee that if the correction is of a larger degree of trend than expected, the investor will not be exposed to excessive losses. Conversely, if the correction ends near or at the target level, this result will increase the probability that the investor’s preferred price move reading is correct.

WHAT IS FIBONACCI TRADING?

For a beginner, Fibonacci trading sounds like a rather perplex concept. However for a Forex trader executing frequent trades, the idea becomes relevantly easy and natural to use. Traders use Fibonacci tools in order to measure potential reversals and extensions of currency price trends. Traders are able to place profit targets in an accurate manner using Fibonacci tools also. There are several key levels to study with Fibonacci trading when placing buy and sell orders. Using Fibonacci trading tools, a trader is guaranteed a proper way in predicting profit targets in their trading.

HOW DOES FIBONACCI TRADING WORK?

Through using Fibonacci Retracement levels, potential support and resistance areas can be identified. Traders use these levels to identify places where a transaction can take place, or setting target prices and stop losses. The Fibonacci retracement will track back and measure on any price movement its way to where it initially began. 61.8% is a popular Fibonacci retracement level that is used by traders.

FIBONACCI EXAMPLE:

A price starts at 40.00 and eventually moves to 50. This would indicate a 10.00 move. This move will trigger traders to sell or buy this move and earn profit. This will cause the price to gradually fall. Now say the price falls to 45.00. This called a pullback however when referring to Fibonacci trading, this price fall would be considered a 50% retracement. If at one point it were to fall a little more, it would go to 61.8% retracement. When considering the most important retracement ratios (above), the next level is of course a common 0.618 which is an incredibly common Fibonacci retracement zone. Tracing your footsteps when you have lost something can be an easy way of understanding Fibonacci retracement.

FIBONACCI EXTENSION LEVELS:

Fibonacci Extension levels are used as profit taking levels. When a price goes over 100% a trader it is described as going over the Fibonacci extension levels. Such levels are used for a trader to determine an area where they want to make profit. Every trader attempts to predict price trends and movements. It is best advised to speculate previous movements and recognise where to measure current highs and lows using Fibonacci Extension levels. Research the most common extension levels and attempt to use them in your trade actions. There are many resources online to understand Fibonacci trading. It is a significant part of trading and most investors get the hang of it eventually through a little practice. Absorb the information fully so you are able to use Fibonacci effectively and gain the most profit during your trading.

WHO IS FIBONACCI?

Leonardo Pisano Fibonacci is a famous European mathematician who lived during the Roman Empire. His fame stems from the unique series of numbers that he discovered which today are used as benchmark for traders across the 5 continets. He found that 38.2%, 50%, 61.8% hold a very popular mathematical relationship as the continually appear in nature.

Based upon historical studies it has been determined that after a significant move in currency prices and the rate begins to retrace, it tends to find support or resistance at 38.2%, 50% and 61.8% of the larger move. These levels represent areas where there is a high likelihood that the retracement will stop and the larger move will resume. A large number of investors also believe these percentages have become a self-fulfilling prophecy as the use of these numbers has become more and more popular. Regardless, Fibonacci relationships are significant and widely watched and if used in conjunction with other indicators can serve as lucrative trading tool.

 

 

 

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출처: http://www.swing-trade-stocks.com/fibonacci-retracements.html

The Fibonacci retracements pattern can be useful for swing traders to identify reversals on a stock chart. On this page we will look at the Fibonacci sequence and show some examples of how you can identify this pattern.

Fibonacci numbers were developed by Leonardo Fibonacci and it is simply a series of numbers that when you add the previous two numbers you come up with the next number in the sequence. Here is an example:

1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55

See how when you add 1 and 2 you get 3? Now add 2 and 3 and you get 5, and so on. So how does this sequence help you as a swing trader?

Well, the relationship between these numbers is what gives us the common Fibonacci retracements pattern in technical analysis.

Fibonacci retracements pattern

Stocks will often pull back or retrace a percentage of the previous move before reversing. These Fibonacci retracements often occur at three levels: 38.2%, 50%, and 61.8%. Actually, the 50% level really does not have anything to do with Fibonacci, but traders use this level because of the tendency of stocks to reverse after retracing half of the previous move. Here is an example using a graphic explaining the retracement pattern:

 

This picture shows a graphical representation of the reversal points for stocks in an uptrend. The pattern is reversed for stocks that are in down trends.

After a stock makes a move to the upside (A), it can then retrace a part of that move (B), before moving on again in the desired direction (C). These retracements or pullbacks are what you as a swing trader want to watch for when initiating long or short positions.

Once the stock begins to pull back (retrace), then you can plot these retracement levels on a chart to look for signs of a reversal. You do not automatically buy the stock just because it is at a common retracement level! Wait, and look for candlestick patterns to develop at the 38.2% area. If you do not see any signs of a reversal, then it may go down to the 50% area. Look for a reversal there. You do not know if or when the stock will reverse at a Fibonacci level! You just mark these areas on a chart and wait for signal to go long or short.

How to draw a fib grid

So how do we identify Fibonacci patterns on a chart. Easy, we draw a Fibonacci grid (fib grid) using swing points. Here is an example:

 

Draw the fib grid from the swing point high and the swing point low of a swing. Your charting software should come with this feature. It is a standard option on most charting packages. If not, you can calculate it manually by using this formula:

Calculate the range from the swing point high to the swing point low.

Now multiply the range times a Fibonacci ratio: 38.2% (0.382), 50% (0.500), and 61.8% (0.618).

Finally, subtract that number from the swing point high. That will give you your Fibonacci levels.

This chart shows an actual trade that I made. HS pulled back into the TAZ and then formed a bullish engulfing candle right at the 50% level. That gave me the signal to go long. Nice trade!

Is it useful?

Well...maybe...sometimes...

Most of the time, when you draw a fib grid on a chart, you will notice that the grid lines up with support and resistance areas that you would see anyway without drawing the lines in! So you really do notneed to draw the lines in. Instead, you can just look at a chart and estimate where the levels are.

Look again at the chart above of HS. If you didn't draw the Fibonacci retracement lines in, you can still tell just by looking at the chart that the stock has retraced 50% of the previous move.

If drawing the lines in helps you to better visualize the fib levels, then by all means use it! The choice is up to you.

Fibonacci eBook

Also, if you want to get into some really advanced Fibonacci analysis, then you may want to check out this Fibonacci eBook. It was written by Wayne Gorman who has 25 years experience in trading, forecasting, and portfolio management. He also worked for Citibank and Westpac Banking Corporation.

This 90 page e-book goes into detail on Fibonacci time relationships, retracements, extensions, clusters, etc. There is also a big emphasis on Elliott Wave theory in this eBook. Some of it can get complicated but you'll definitely be an expert on Fibonacci by the time you finish reading this!

So there you have it. Hopefully, this page gave you a good idea of how Fibonacci works. At least now you can start plotting fib grids and looking at retracement levels the next time you consider a trade.

Just remember...

Price is king. Wait for signs of a reversal before you initiate a trade!

 

 

 

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기타 정보 :

 http://stockcharts.com/

http://www.trading-point.com/fibonacci-calculator

http://www.swing-trade-stocks.com

 

 

 

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